NGX Market Summary – Wednesday, October 22, 2025

The Nigerian equity markets staged an energetic rebound today, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) gaining +1.50% to close at 151,456.91. This spirited move propelled Year-To-Date (YTD) returns to a solid +49.00%, reinforcing the market's growth narrative for 2025. Market turnover surged by +19.1% to ₦21.34B, with volume ramping up to 556.1M from 486.2M. Breadth was bullish with 36 advancers versus 31 decliners, and advancers led decliners by a ratio of 1.16x. Notably, banking and consumer names saw heavy institutional flows, while several momentum plays drew unusual volume. Large-cap names and recent outperformers saw follow-through buying, but breadth hinted at selective risk appetite as some high-Beta stocks retreated.

1. Key Market Trends and Breadth

• Market Breadth: Advancers outpaced decliners (36 vs. 31; ratio: 1.16x), confirming broad underlying bullishness but with pockets of profit taking.
• Volume Surge: Trading volume jumped by +14% over yesterday, indicating increased participation, especially in banking majors and select momentum stocks.
• Institutional Dominance: Institutions accounted for 74.2% of total volume and over 91.7% of total value, highlighting deep-pocket participation in key large-cap stocks.
• Turnover Spike: Total turnover rose +19.1% from the previous session—typically a positive sign when paired with a positive index move, confirming institutional follow-through.

2. Top Gainers & Losers: Key Highlights

Observations:

• Overlap Alert: ASOSAVINGS, NASCON, and SKYAVN feature both as daily and 5-day/MTD top gainers, indicating strong short-to-medium term momentum.
• VITAFOAM, a top 5 YTD gainer, continues strong volume; RSI at 72.3 suggests near overbought—watch for mean reversion.
• ROYALEX hits both daily and YTD loser tables and triggers bearish technicals: repeated red flag for investors.

3. Insights & Predictions

• Turnover Implications: The turnover spike (+19.1%) is healthy when paired with a rally, suggesting accumulation rather than mere speculative churn.
• Momentum Overlap: ASOSAVINGS, NASCON, SKYAVN: Aligned across YTD, short-term, unusual volume, and bullish technical tables; potential for continued upside but beware exhaustion, especially with RSI approaching 70 in some.
• Conflicted Technicals: ROYALEX is a YTD loser, showed as both bearish and a daily top loser, with price below 15DMA—momentum still negative. Avoid or short-term caution.
• Unusual Volumes: GTCO traded ~353% above average volume, NASCON at ~244%, AFRIPRUD at ~192%. These names warrant close tracking as they often herald trend continuation or short-term volatility spikes.
• Bullish 15DMA Crossovers: INTENEGINS, HONYFLOUR, GUINEAINS, STERLINGNG—generally technical buy signals; especially useful where RSI is below 70 (to minimize overbought risk).
• Bearish 15DMA Breakdowns: MANSARD, ROYALEX, OANDO, ETERNA, LASACO, VERITASKAP—all breaking below support, reinforcing short-term downside risks.

4. Contrarian Signals

• CHAMPION BREW. PLC. (CHAMPION):
  RSI is 48.3 (neutral), MACD mildly bullish, but price is down -4.5% today and YTD is negative. This conflict signals possible bottom-fishing opportunity if broader sector sentiment turns.
• LEGEND INTERNET PLC (LEGENDINT):
  High RSI (60), still a top loser. This divergence suggests technical overextension to the downside or a potential reversal brewing.
• VITAFOAM:
  RSI at 72.3 (overbought), price up only +0.37% today but up +293.95% YTD. Watch for exhaustion and possible short-term corrective move.

5. Sector Heatmap & Highlights

• Notable: Bank sector dominates both value and volume flows, led by GTCO, ZENITHBANK.
• Insurance sector sees technical inflection: INTENEGINS & GUINEAINS (bullish), MANSARD & ROYALEX (bearish and on loser lists).

6. Dividend–Beta Matrix: Defensive Ideas

7. Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Accounted for 20.2% of institutional trade value. Watch for major flows or sentiment shifts in this key banking bellwether.
• GTCO: Over ₦7.39B value traded; institutional activity at record levels, aligning with its unusual volume spike today.
• NASCON: Heavy institutional and unusual retail interest, especially with 243% volume spike.

8. Correlations/Notable Patterns (YTD & Momentum Tables)

• Multiple top daily gainers—ASOSAVINGS, NASCON, SKYAVN—feature in both short-term and YTD leader tables, strengthening the run-the-winners case.
• ROYALEX and MANSARD appear in both the loser and bearish momentum tables, compounding technical and fundamental risk for longs.
• NASCON: High YTD return, technical momentum, unusual volume, moderate Beta and dividend yield—potential for multifactor appreciation continues, but RSI (61) is climbing.
• VITAFOAM: Defensive on yield and Beta but technically overbought; consider trailing stops or reversal strategies.

9. Trader Suggestions & Tactical Ideas

• Chase momentum in names with overlap across daily, 5D, YTD, and volume leader tables: e.g., NASCON, ASOSAVINGS, SKYAVN—but keep RSI and overbought/oversold readings in focus.
• Look for entries in defensive high-yield, low Beta stocks like AFRIPRUD and REGALINS if broad market volatility increases.
• Avoid or short recent losers displaying both poor YTD and technical bearishness, e.g., ROYALEX, MANSARD.
• Monitor large institutional flows (ZENITHBANK, GTCO)—their next move sets the tone for banking sector sentiment.
• Contrarian Alert: CHAMPION—if general market risk appetite returns, could be an early reversal candidate.
• Manage risk on names mentioned with overbought RSI (>70) and rising short-term volatility, e.g., VITAFOAM.

10. YTD Gainers and Losers – Table

11. Market Activity Analysis: Retail vs Institutional Flows

• Institutional investors executed 38.98% of trades but accounted for a massive 74.22% of volume and 91.66% of trade value—implying larger average transaction sizes and positioning primarily in banking majors, blue chips, and momentum leaders.
• Retail investors dominated on trade count (61.02%) but represented only 8.34% of trade value, focusing on smaller, lower-priced stocks.

Top 5 Most Traded by Institutions

Top 5 Most Traded by Retail

• Pattern: Main institutional flows are into high-beta banking and value plays; retail chases penny-stock (insurance-focused) momentum as well as blue-chip exposure where affordable.
• Correlation: ACCESSCORP and ZENITHBANK sit in both institutional and retail top traded lists—strengthens conviction in their liquidity and trend reliability, but sudden reversals can be sharp given the mixed participant base.
• Insider Tip: When institutions and retail both flock to a name, short-term price discovery can be rapid, but trend reversals (esp. post-earnings or macro news) are often abrupt—trade with stops.

12. FX Market Summary

The Naira appreciated +0.19% against the USD, closing at ₦1,467/$1—a marginal improvement, supporting importers and lowering foreign-exchange-driven cost-push inflation pressures.

Summary Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations

• Momentum names with volume and breadth confirmation (NASCON, ASOSAVINGS, SKYAVN) remain buy-the-dip candidates, but RSI caution applies.
• Defensive, high-yield/low Beta stocks (VITAFOAM, REGALINS, AFRIPRUD) offer shelter and slow-and-steady compounding, particularly if market switches risk-off.
• High institutional clustering in banks (ZENITHBANK, GTCO) sets the near-term tone; watch for spillover to mid-tier banks and sector ETFs.
• Bullish traders can ride trend in stocks crossing above 15DMA with moderate RSI (avoid >70), while bearish traders should target short-side in stocks breaking key supports and confirmed in YTD/bear tables (ROYALEX, MANSARD).
• Contrarians should keep a watchlist of conflict names (CHAMPION, LEGENDINT) for snapback rallies.